Uganda

Submitted
Yanagizawa-Drott, David, Tessa Bold, Kayuki C. Kaizzi, and Jakob Svensson. Submitted. “Low Quality, Low Returns, Low Adoption: Evidence from the Market for Fertilizer and Hybrid Seed in Uganda”.Abstract

To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed contains less than 50% authentic seeds. We document that such low quality results in negative average returns. If authentic technologies replaced these low-quality products, average returns for smallholder farmers would be over 50%.

rwp15_033_yanagizawa.pdf
2015
Callen, Michael, Clark C. Gibson, Danielle F. Jung, and James D. Long. 2015. “Improving Electoral Integrity with Information and Communications Technology.” Journal of Experimental Political Science 3 (1). Publisher's VersionAbstract

Irregularities plague elections in developing democracies. The international community spends hundreds of millions of dollars on election observation, with little robust evidence that they consistently improve electoral integrity. We conducted a randomized control trial to measure the effect of an intervention to detect and deter electoral irregularities employing a nation-wide sample of polling stations in Uganda using scalable information and communications technology (ICT). In treatment stations, researchers delivered letters to polling officials stating that tallies would be photographed using smartphones and  ompared against official results. Compared to stations with no letters, the letters  ncreased the frequency of posted tallies by polling center managers in compliance with the law; decreased the number of sequential digits found on tallies – a fraud indicator; and decreased the vote share for the incumbent president, in some specifications. Our results demonstrate that a cost-effective citizen and ICT intervention can improve electoral integrity in emerging democracies.

M. Callen in JEPS on Improving Electoral Integrity
2012
Yanagizawa-Drott, David, and Jakob Svensson. 2012. “Estimating Impact in Partial vs. General Equilibrium: A Cautionary Tale from a Natural Experiment in Uganda”.Abstract

This paper provides an example where sensible conclusions made in partial equilibrium are offset by general equilibrium effects. We study the impact of an intervention that distributed information on urban market prices of food crops through rural radio stations in Uganda. Using a differences-in-differences approach and a partial equilibrium assumption of unaffected urban market prices, the conclusion is the intervention lead to a substantial increase in average crop revenue for farmers with access to the radio broadcasts, due to higher farm-gate prices and a higher share of output sold to traders. This result is consistent with a simple model of the agricultural market, where a small-scale policy intervention  effects the willingness to sell by reducing information frictions between farmers and rural-urban traders. However, as the radio broadcasts were received by millions of farmers, the intervention had an aggregate effect on urban market prices, thereby falsifying the partial equilibrium assumption and conclusion. Instead, and consistent with the model when the policy intervention is large-scale, market prices fell in response to the positive supply response by farmers with access to the broadcasts, while crop revenues for farmers without access decreased as they responded to the lower price level by decreasing market participation. When taking the general equilibrium effect on prices and farmers without access to the broadcasts into account, the conclusion is the intervention had no impact on average crop revenue, but large distributional consequences.

esitmating_impact_-_august_2012.pdf
Bjorkman-Nyqvist, Martina, Jakob Svensson, and David Yanagizawa-Drott. 2012. “The market for (fake) antimalarial medicine: evidence from Uganda”.Abstract

Counterfeit and sub-standard antimalarial drugs present a growing threat to public health. This paper investigates the mechanisms that determine the prevalence of fake antimalarial drugs in local markets, their effects, and potential interventions to combat the problem. We collect drug samples from a large set of local markets in Uganda using covert shoppers and employ Raman spectroscopy to test for drug quality. We find that 37 percent of the local outlets sell fake antimalarial drugs. Motivated by a simple model, we conduct a market-level experiment to test whether authentic drugs can drive out fake drugs from the local market. We find evidence of such externalities: the intervention reduced prevalence of substandard and counterfeit drugs in incumbent outlets by half. We also provide suggestive evidence that misconceptions about malaria lead consumers to overestimate antimalarial drug quality, and that opportunistic drug shops exploit these misconceptions by selling substandard and counterfeit drugs. Together, our results indicate that high quality products can drive out low quality ones, but the opposite is true when consumers are less able to infer product quality.

cid_working_paper_no._242_drott_2012.pdf
2009
Svensson, Jakob, and David Yanagizawa-Drott. 2009. “Getting Prices Right: The Impact of the Market Information Service in Uganda.” Journal of the European Economic Association 7 (2-3): 435-445. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The Market Information Service project in Uganda collected data on prices for the main agricultural commodities in major market centers and disseminated the information through local FM radio stations in various districts. Exploiting the variation across space between households with and without access to a radio, we find evidence suggesting that better-informed farmers managed to bargain for higher farm-gate prices on their surplus production.

journal_of_the_european_economic_association_vol_7_no_2-3_yanagizawa-drott_2009_getting_prices_right_-_hks.pdf